African leaders have had a range of responses to Donald Trump’s re-election. Most of them have expressed their congratulations and emphasized the need to work together based on mutual respect. If you remember, during his first term, he said some African countries were “shitholes,” which caused a lot of controversy. However, many African leaders, like Kenyan politician Raila Odinga, have moved on from old complaints. Odinga, on the other hand, has been more positive, saying, “This is now—another, new Trump.”
However, there are still concerns about how Trump’s “America First” policy will impact Africa, especially since Republicans may soon be in charge of both the US House and Senate. A big worry is how trade might change under Trump’s presidency, especially when it comes to the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Since the Clinton administration, AGOA has been a key part of trade between the US and Africa. It lets a wide range of African goods enter the US duty-free. Trump has already said that he wants to put tariffs on a lot of foreign goods. It’s not clear what he will do about AGOA’s future, but the deal is up for renewal next year. It has been said by analysts that Trump could make US trade strategy more focused on bilateral deals rather than multilateral ones, which would make AGOA less likely to happen.
How Trump’s fight with China will play out in Africa is another important problem. The Lobito Corridor project in Angola, which is backed by the US and aims to bring important materials like copper and cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia to export ports, shows how important Africa is in the larger economic competition between the US and China. The US sees projects like the Lobito Corridor as important to countering Beijing’s impact as its economic presence in Africa grows, especially in terms of building infrastructure and taking resources from the ground. Depending on how hard Trump tries to implement his “America First” policies in the region, his method could either make these strategic projects stronger or more difficult.
In terms of safety, US troops were pulled out of Somalia during Trump’s first term. They had been there to help fight Islamist terrorists. Under President Biden, US forces are also pulling out of the Sahel region. It is still unclear what role the US military will play in a second Trump government. In Africa, Russian influence is growing, mostly through the mercenary group Wagner. At the same time, Islamist militant groups are rising, especially in the Sahel. Some of the world’s most unstable security situations are in Africa. Countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are becoming less stable because of terrorist groups with ties to both Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. It’s not clear what Trump thinks about this problem, especially since he has been very critical of the billions of dollars spent on foreign interventions, such as in Ukraine. There are worries that his administration might cut back on US military presence in Africa, which would leave a security hole that Russia or other regional powers could fill.
Concerns have also been raised about US help to Africa. The US is supposed to give nearly $4 billion to sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, but during Trump’s first term, cuts were suggested to foreign aid, though many of those cuts were blocked by Congress. One program that is being looked at closely is PEPFAR, the US program to fight HIV/AIDS. This program has saved millions of lives but had to be put on hold recently because of political problems in Congress. Under a second Trump administration, it’s still not clear what will happen to this program, which has been one of the US’s most successful foreign health initiatives. Trump’s budget plans have always tried to cut back on US aid to other countries. This makes people worry about the future of programs that have directly helped with Africa’s health crises.
Climate change is also a problem because Africa is most likely to be affected by it and makes the least amount of pollution. Concerns have been made about the future of global climate action because Trump doesn’t believe in climate change and pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement during his first term. A lot of people are worried that if he gets re-elected, the US might leave the Paris Agreement again. This would break international climate agreements and make it harder for Africa to switch to clean energy. More floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events are happening on the continent, and they are hurting its poorest people the most. A lot of African countries are also asking for help from other countries to pay for their transitions to green energy and plans to deal with climate change. Trump’s views on climate change, especially his doubts about environmental rules and green energy, might make it harder for the US to help Africa with its efforts to become more resilient to climate change.
Aside from these important problems, Trump’s view on multilateral diplomacy also worries people in Africa. His first term was marked by a preference for bilateral deals and a general lack of trust in multilateral organizations. This could make it harder for Africa to work with the US on bigger global problems like climate change, trade, and security. It might be harder for African countries to understand how global government works now that the US is pulling out of international agreements like the Paris Agreement and some UN programs. This is especially true as they try to get better deals in trade, health, and security.
African leaders want a new start now that Trump has been re-elected, but trade, security, aid, and climate change are big problems that will likely change the way the US and Africa work together in the years to come. Trump’s focus on putting American interests first might not be in line with the wants and goals of African countries. This could lead to tensions between the two groups’ hopes for mutual benefit and the realities of a relationship that is more transactional and less cooperative. How African leaders interact with a second Trump administration will depend on how well they can adapt to changing geopolitics and look out for the interests of their own countries and region.
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